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Philippines Visa Bulletin Demand and Supply Explorer

Inspect the modeled queue and the deterministic reason behind a selected forecast date.

Latest forecast run · Jul 13, 2026 · next bulletin

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EB-2 Philippines modeled demand

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Default scenario
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Line: remaining cumulative modeled demand strictly before each priority-date month. The teal intersection is the cutoff implied by the model’s ready-demand buffer; another control rule can produce a different selected date. Bars: demand within each three-month period. Later horizons remove modeled issuance oldest-first and add projected inflow; the priority-date axis stays fixed for comparison. Hover, tap, or use the arrow keys to inspect.

How the model translates petitions into visa-number demand

A demand unit is one modeled visa-number use. It is not a unique person, petition, or case count.

The model starts with pending adjustment-of-status inventory by priority date, adds estimated consular demand, and uses recent I-140 approvals and approved-petition totals to estimate demand not yet visible there. Undated “prior years” demand stays undated.

The net conversion accounts collectively for derivatives, duplicate petitions, attrition, route choice, upgrades or downgrades, and cross-chargeability. Those behaviors are not identified person by person.

Supply uses the latest value the model could know at the forecast date, then applies category allocation, country ceilings, spillover, monthly pacing, and deterministic advance, hold, retrogression, and exhaustion rules. The displayed range is a scenario band, not a statistical confidence interval.

The default cutoff control keeps a six-month buffer of modeled demand ready. It converts the cell’s annual allocation to a monthly pace, multiplies that pace by six and the safety factor, then finds where the remaining cumulative demand curve reaches that target. That intersection is a candidate cutoff; movement limits, September carry-forward, exhaustion, and worldwide consistency can produce a different selected date.