Mexico Visa Bulletin Demand and Supply Explorer

A demand unit is one modeled visa-number use. It is not a unique person, petition, or case count.

The model starts with pending adjustment-of-status inventory by priority date, adds estimated consular demand, and uses recent I-140 approvals and approved-petition totals to estimate demand not yet visible there. Undated “prior years” demand stays undated.

The net conversion accounts collectively for derivatives, duplicate petitions, attrition, route choice, upgrades or downgrades, and cross-chargeability. Those behaviors are not identified person by person.

Supply uses the latest value the model could know at the forecast date, then applies category allocation, country ceilings, spillover, monthly pacing, and deterministic advance, hold, retrogression, and exhaustion rules. The displayed range is a scenario band, not a statistical confidence interval.

The default cutoff control keeps a six-month buffer of modeled demand ready. It converts the cell’s annual allocation to a monthly pace, multiplies that pace by six and the safety factor, then finds where the remaining cumulative demand curve reaches that target. That intersection is a candidate cutoff; movement limits, September carry-forward, exhaustion, and worldwide consistency can produce a different selected date.